Oscar weekend is here and to comply with my film critic civic duty I give you a rundown of my picks for the top categories in contention this weekend.

While writing this article I was trying to figure out a unique way to present the nominees and possible outcomes, especially since everyone does a “will win” and “should win” category. The truth is this classic method of running down the Oscars is classic for a reason, it works and keeps the categories organized. The only thing that changes are the predictions and that’s where I come in.

As always, feel free to discuss your own opinions below and play nice. We all want our favorite movies to win Sunday night but that can’t always be the case. Cheesy but true.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Will win: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network

There are few locks in this year’s Oscar race and Aaron Sorkin’s screenplay for “The Social Network” is one of them. Widely regarded as one of the best screenwriters working today, Sorkin’s specialty is taking the most mundane situations and giving them the ferocity and wit of a verbal chess match. Words are used like bullets in his screenplays with characters playfully bantering one minute and loquaciously ripping each other apart the next.

From his television work on “The West Wing” and “Sports Night” to his feature work in “A Few Good Men” and “The American President,“ there’s no denying Sorkin’s flare for the written word. Even his neutered screenplay for “Charlie Wilson’s War” managed to set itself apart despite heavy studio interference. “The Social Network” is the perfect marriage of writer and material and it’s Sorkin’s award to lose.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

Will win: The King’s Speech
Should win: Inception

The strength of “The King’s Speech” lies in its two lead performances, not in its screenplay. One could argue that it’s because of the screenplay that Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush are so good but I’d say the opposite. Firth and Rush have taken lukewarm material and transformed it into something much greater thanks to their immersive talent.

“The Kids Are All Right” and “Another Year” shouldn’t even be nominated in the first place (“Kids” is too broad to be special and Mike Leigh never uses a working script on his sets). As much as I love “The Fighter” I will also admit that much like “The King’s Speech,” it’s a formulaic film whose power rests on the shoulders of its leads. This brings us to my choice for the prize, “Inception.” Christopher Nolan doesn’t have much of a chance to win a lot this year but this could be his best shot. A Nolan upset by voters who feel he was snubbed in the directing category could be sweet payback for one of the year’s most overlooked films.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In A Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Outside the Law (Algeria)

Will win: In A Better World
Should win: Dogtooth

“In A Better World” is a good film but not a great film, yet it’s been winning awards left and right so look for the trend to continue Sunday night. “Biutiful” is way too pretentious for its own good but I understand the Academy’s love for director Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (I‘m a fan too but was severely disappointed this time around).

If the Academy truly wants to take a chance and be bold this year, give the award to “Dogtooth.” It’s a miracle the outrageous and disturbing film got nominated in the first place but if they’re going to go nuts and nominate it, I’d say they should go all out and give it the award. It’s the most deserving of the group and it will show that the safe choice isn’t always the best choice.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Will win: Toy Story 3
Should win: The Illusionist

I understand the love for “Toy Story 3” but I’m not fully on board. It’s not a bad film by any means but the Pixar monopoly in this category shouldn’t be extended to its lukewarm product. “How to Train Your Dragon” continued to prove that Dreamworks Animation is capable of great things when they have the right talent steering the ship. But it was Sylvain Chomet’s “The Illusionist” that conveyed so much with so little in this year’s animated field. The story of a washed-up magician looking for a fresh start may not seem like much at first glance but the rush of emotion that comes with it is enough to make you cry twice as hard than you did at “Toy Story 3.”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Will win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Should win: Exit Through the Gift Shop

“Inside Job” is still the frontrunner to some but I believe the film peaked too early and has now given up the Oscar to Bansky and his quasi-documentary. “Gift Shop” is the strongest film in this category but I’m guessing the film will not win based on its merits but because of the mystery surrounding master showman Banksy with his will-he or won’t-he surprise reveal. The Academy’s love for rewarding outspoken nominees to see what they do on stage goes back to Michael Moore and Roberto Benigni but in this case Banksy actually deserves the award.

It also doesn’t hurt that Banksy has run an unofficial Oscar campaign on the streets on Los Angeles by appearing to not be campaigning at all. Getting people to talk about your street art by pretending to not care about the Oscars is an interesting way to bring attention to your film. I’m just as curious as everyone else to see what happens if the film wins but I’m glad the hype is justified and not just smoke and mirrors.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams: “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter: “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo: “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld: “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver: “Animal Kingdom”

Will win: Melissa Leo
Should win: Melissa Leo

Short and sweet, this is a tough category to judge but Melissa Leo deserves the award. Amy Adams is deserving too but Melissa has the flashier role.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale: “The Fighter”
John Hawkes: “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner: “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo: “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush: “The King’s Speech”

Will win: Christian Bale
Should win: Christian Bale

Another hard category to judge but the Oscar will and should go to the obvious choice, Batman himself. If by some huge upset John Hawkes were to sneak in and take the award I wouldn’t complain but as flashy as Bale’s performance may be it’s still a hard role to pull off. He’s the beating heart of “The Fighter” and commands the screen from the first frame. His delicate balance between subtlety and camp is exactly why the film and his performance work so well together.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening: “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman: “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence: “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman: “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams: “Blue Valentine”

Will win: Natalie Portman
Should win: Michelle Williams

It’s a tough call between Natalie Portman and Michelle Williams, both actresses stretched themselves in ways few actors (male or female) have in a long time. While both actresses are very deserving I’d love for the Academy to follow my lead and go against the grain a little bit. It’s unfortunate Ryan Gosling wasn’t also nominated for “Blue Valentine” but as its sole representation, it’s Williams who has the opportunity to shine a light on such a special film. It’s not a requirement to have gone through a terrible breakup to understand the emotion Michelle Williams conveys in “Blue Valentine” but it definitely helps.

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem: “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges: “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg: “The Social Network”
Colin Firth: “The King’s Speech”
James Franco: “127 Hours”

Will win: Colin Firth
Should win: Jesse Eisenberg

The tough choices keep coming as both Firth and Eisenberg help elevate their respective films to greatness but it’s Eisenberg’s quiet antihero who comes out on top for me. The Academy is looking to keep with tradition and give the award to Colin Firth. Not a bad choice at all but they can do better.

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky: “Black Swan”
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen: “True Grit”
David Fincher: “The Social Network”
Tom Hooper: “The King’s Speech”
David O. Russell: “The Fighter”

Will win: David Fincher
Should win: David Fincher

I know Tom Hooper won the DGA award for “The King’s Speech” but I believe this to be one of the few year’s where the DGA and Academy Awards don’t align in perfect harmony. It’s been Fincher’s award to lose all along (and for good reason) so for the Academy to change their minds at the last minute and reward tradition instead of skill would be…….right in their wheelhouse.

BEST PICTURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Will win: The King’s Speech
Should win: The Social Network

“The King’s Speech” is a good film. It’s even strategically positioned as the current frontrunner and is exactly the right kind of comfort food the Academy loves to vote for. Having said all of that, “The Social Network” is a stronger film.

A part of me actually wants “The King’s Speech” to win since history tends to look down on past best picture winners and elevate the losers. “Ordinary People” beating “Raging Bull.” “Dances With Wolves” beating “Goodfellas.” “Shakespeare in Love” beating “Saving Private Ryan.” “Crash” beating “Munich.” “The King’s Speech” beating “The Social Network.” It’s very possible and might sadly happen Sunday night.